Brighton seems to have carved a niche for themselves as the dark horses, particularly when pitted against top-four contenders as underdogs. Their recent performance under Roberto De Zerbi has only added to their growing reputation, especially in encounters with the so-called giants. This was evident in their comprehensive dismantling of Newcastle just before the break.
Taking a closer look at their track record in the last 21 matches across all competitions, involving formidable opponents like Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham, and Arsenal, Brighton has emerged victorious in 12 of these battles. Their cumulative scoreline in these matchups stands at 38-27. With odds of 2/1 for an away triumph at Old Trafford, facing a Manchester United side known for its vulnerabilities, this bet certainly holds appeal.
While that presents a compelling wager, here’s an even more intriguing one to consider.
This bet revolves around the performance of Lewis Dunk, Brighton’s English center-back, and whether he will commit one or more fouls at even odds (Evens). Rasmus Hojlund is expected to wreak havoc in Manchester United’s attacking ranks with his aggressive and all-action style. During his debut against Arsenal, the young striker displayed remarkable composure, fearlessly engaging in physical duels, even against the robust Gabriel.
Hoijlund has managed to draw an impressive 19 fouls in his last 12 appearances for both club and country. It’s likely that Dunk will be tasked with containing him. Interestingly, Dunk’s recent record shows an average of just 0.40 fouls per game over his last 25 matches. This indicates that, according to the algorithm, he is the least likely among Brighton players to commit a foul. However, this might be an oversight, presenting an opportunity. Betting on Dunk to commit two or more fouls, at odds of 5/1, appears significantly undervalued. Seizing such favorable pricing is a wise choice.